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Mounting worries are present regarding the potential of military engagement involving East African neighbors, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as confrontational rhetoric has intensified in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Declared?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, calls for access to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has provoked a intense war of words.

PM Abiy Ahmed previously announced in last year that his country's maritime access was an crucial concern, comments that Eritrean authorities rejected.

Ties between the neighboring nations have frequently been strained. After a prolonged fight for sovereignty, the Eritrean state, which has a long Red Sea coastline, legally broke away from Ethiopia in 1993, rendering it without sea access.

In 1998, a territorial conflict erupted in which numerous people were killed.

Current Remarks from Ethiopian Government

Abiy and army chief General Birhanu Jula have openly claimed ownership of Eritrean southern port of Assab – some 60 km from the frontier - and hinted at the intention to capture it through military means.

In early September, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "blunder" of being denied passage to the sea as a result of Eritrea's separation would be "rectified tomorrow".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that the port was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be given back "by force".

Eritrea's Answer to the Statements

In the face of persistent warnings from Ethiopia, Eritrea's reaction has been confined to brief comments on X from Communications Head Yemane Gebremeskel.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's push for access to the Red Sea labeling it "risky" and a "negative policy" of "irredentism" – a policy of claiming back lost territory.

Government spokespeople warned on mid-September that moves to legitimise "flagrant aggression" would have serious consequences for Ethiopia and its neighbouring countries and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Movements on the Ground

There have been few indications of major military movements in the border areas between the neighboring states.

However, in Ethiopia, government media has shown training completions of many recruits at various military training camps.

The head of human resources department of the defense force, the officer, stated recently in an conversation that the military was in a "reliable position" as "many thousands of youths" were entering service, which he said was "a warning to our adversaries".

Historical Roots of the Dispute

For more than half a century from the late 19th century, Eritrea was ruled by Italian colonisers.

After the end of Italian rule, it was then managed by the British administration before becoming a integrated region of Ethiopia.

But in 1962 the ruler ended this agreement and the region became totally absorbed into the Ethiopian state.

A thirty-year internal conflict followed, finishing with Ethiopia's defeat in the early 1990s. Sovereignty was then confirmed by voters in a plebiscite in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were good relations between the leadership in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they disagreed over the exact location of their shared boundary, leading to war in 1998.

Although this ended in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the two nations remained at in dispute.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made gestures to Eritrean President President Isaias. The two agreed to a announcement that the war was concluded – a move that earned the Prime Minister the prestigious award.

The two governments were then allies in the country's recent civil war in Tigray.

Yet diplomatic connections have later worsened anew.