Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
