Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
