Amid the considerable disarray surrounding the American military actions on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “take back the oil”, a single fact remains evident – they set a truly chilling precedent.
Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed
The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.
The move to assault another independent nation and seize its president – only a few days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – possesses far-reaching consequences. It should alarm us all.
A Nation Left in Limbo
Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and dismissed rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the leadership-stricken government are far more intransigent.
From Global Policeman to International Outlaw
A man who won power vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.
He holds the view that the America's power allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He asserts that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this latest episode “won’t cost us a penny”.
An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty
George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to destroy them.
Disregard the message this sends to global powers like Russia and China, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will almost certainly fuel additional military gambits.
The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims
It is widely rejected the justification that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is propelled by the lure of oil as well as a desire to project strength, the ideology of some in his administration, and the desire for glory as his support at home declines.
A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance
The international response, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been shockingly muted. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode underscores the UN's diminishing clout.
Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could still pressure him to redirect his gaze inward – but soaring healthcare premiums, financial discontent and distracting files fuel his desire for external drama.
We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may live to repent if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.
