War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process widely dismissed as a farce, with key opposition groups dissolved, numerous figures jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing civil war.

A Staggered Vote Amid War

The military government is holding a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it seized power in a coup, which ignited massive protests and escalated into a devastating conflict.

Observers say the military regime, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the freedoms of freedom of expression, association or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been charged for interfering with or criticising the election under a new law which carries harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, pointing out that resistance forces have issued their own threats asking people to boycott the polls.

The army has been fighting on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own militias. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a huge logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

Voting is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it challenging to forecast a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as fabricated, while others are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the authorities can change their approach if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has urged negotiations to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected criticism of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"The election is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not being held for the international community," a junta spokesman stated at a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "progress toward democracy".